Guest Blog by: Susan Freeman – Partner, Mischon de Reya
I was delighted to be at this morning’s Movers & Shakers breakfast panel at the Savoy Hotel, along with my Mishcon colleagues Anju Suneja and Adriano Amorese. As it was the first Movers & Shakers event of 2024 and as we are still in January (just) our hostess, Leigh Salter deemed it appropriate to wish us a final happy new year!
It was great to catch up with Fizzy Living founder Harry Downes, now at Greystar as we hadn’t seen each other since pre lockdown. I also had a chance to chat to some of my favourite co collaborators, Jace Tyrrell now back from Australia to run Opportunity London and Patricia Brown who, to her embarrassment, Leigh congratulated in opening on her recent and well-deserved MBE! Jace was allowed just 90 seconds to plug Opportunity London, a brilliant new initiative to promote investment into London.
As always, it was a great turnout at the Savoy Hotel, which provides a most superior breakfast and a level of service that never fail to impress.
Leigh Salter introduced the session with an overview of upcoming Movers & Shakers events, including the new Creative Industries Summit, planned for later in the year. This new format sounds like a wonderful opportunity to bring real estate together with the creative industries so watch this space.
CBRE’s Jennet Siebrits started proceedings with an interesting overview of the real estate market as we go into 2024. Running through the various factors affecting the economy, she felt that there were cautious grounds for optimism. She pointed to the soft landing in the US as a reason for us to be more positive. It will be a bit of a balancing act. Capital values have fallen sharply, but now stabilised. She referred to a CBRE survey in which half of those surveyed expect to invest more this year than last year, although she admitted this is a low base. There is still some concern about the mismatch of buyer and seller expectations, but the UK and London consistently come out at the top of surveys on which markets will see the highest level of activity. In terms of sectors, people are looking to invest in, industrial/logistics comes out at the top with also huge interest residential. Offices continue to be unloved and are at an 11-year low. Student accommodation is the most popular alternative residential class. Overall, she expects investment to be up 10% in 2024 and her conclusion was that it will be a good year for Property, at least at the backend.
The excellent panellists were Mike Best (Head of Logistics at British Land), Harry Downes (Managing Director, UK, multifamily investment Greystar), Morwenna Hall (Partner & COO, Argent LLP), Jamie Ratcliff (Chief Communities and Sustainability officer SNG and Abby Shapiro (Senior VP UK and Europe Oxford Properties). The session was expertly chaired by Melanie Leech CBE (Chief Executive BPF).
Melanie Leech promoted a great discussion around the upcoming general election and its likely effect on real estate. Also, around housing policy generally and the suggestion that it should be above politics so there could be some long-term continuity and planning.
Interestingly Abi Shapiro said Oxford Properties had chosen UK investment as perceived as having less regulatory risk. Ironically, they have been hit harder on planning and safety regulations which will impact their investment into high-rise residential. She also talked about their focus on life sciences and particularly wet labs space and the supply and demand imbalance. She referenced an exuberance of interest, but supply is still not there. The UK government should play a big role as innovation is risky. In the US for example the government is invested through its Inflation Reduction Act. The UK has an opportunity in this sector, but innovation is going to the US for funding. But there is VC lending in London and no stock which presents an opportunity for London life sciences.
There was an interesting discussion on the importance of public/private sector partnerships and the need to set the right expectations. Harry Downes underlined the need to re-purpose town centres and to build on brownfield sites to increase density. He pointed out that now with the adoption of BTR it is socially acceptable to rent a flat in the UK.
Jamie Ratcliff highlighted concerns about the crisis in local authority finances which was affecting planning and place making and said this was something the property industry should focus on.
Morwenna highlighted the changing requirements for F&B operators post lockdown. At Kings X occupiers increasingly want more outside which they have the space to accommodate. She finished with a brilliant suggestion that ITV should do a documentary on the housing crisis, ‘and something may actually happen’, referencing the amazing response to the ITV documentary on the post office scandal. Discussion on this suggestion continues on social media.
Thank you, Movers & Shakers for another enjoyable and thought-provoking morning!
